Poorly Controlled Eaton Fire Largely Contributed to Extensive Losses, According to Report
In early January, the Eaton Fire in Los Angeles County caused devastation, destroying over 16,000 structures and damaging another 2,046. The insured losses from this fire are estimated to be up to $45 billion, with more than $17 billion in claims already paid.
The Nature Conservancy, a company that specialises in environmental research, conducted a retrospective analysis of the Palisades and Eaton fires and published the results in a wildfire report. The analysis revealed that 84% of structures affected or destroyed by the Eaton Fire were located in areas with a high to very high conflagration hazard.
Conflagration hazard differs from wildfire risk, which considers factors like risk on the property, distance to high-hazard fuels, open wildland, and wind and drought. The drought and high winds affecting Southern California at the time of the Eaton Fire created conditions conducive to conflagration.
The Palisades Fire analysis found that 48% of destroyed properties fell into the category of properties classified as low-to-moderate wildfire hazard yet had high conflagration hazard. This suggests that properties assessed as low or moderate wildfire hazard may still face high or very high conflagration risk.
Cotality, the company that conducted the analysis, determines conflagration hazard based on structure density, structure characteristics, weather, and climate. The transition between wildfire and built environment fundamentally alters the fire's behavior, impacting how it spreads, where it travels, and the scale of its potential destruction.
The total property and capital losses from the fires could range between $76 billion and $131 billion. More than half (approximately 1.2 million) of the 2.6 million Western U.S. homes with moderate or greater wildfire risk carry a combined reconstruction cost value of $1.3 trillion.
Interestingly, California, Colorado, and Texas have more homes with elevated wildfire risk than all the other states Cotality modeled. More homes are being built in the wildland-urban interface, which elevates their risk. Wildfire-induced conflagration occurs when a wildfire transitions from a natural vegetation environment into a built environment.
In the past five years, at least 10 major wildfire-induced conflagrations have destroyed more than 26,000 structures. With the increasing number of homes in high-risk areas and the growing potential for conflagrations, it is crucial to understand and address the unique risks associated with conflagration hazard.
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